Like any good story, '07 season a prologue to '08
Jimmie Johnson is ready to celebrate his 2007 championship at this weekend's Nextel Cup Awards banquet. He's excited about reviewing and savoring the past season. Most other NASCAR driver and their fans are ready to put the year in the rearview mirror -- and not look back.
In that spirit, here's a look ahead by glancing back. We're going back to the future, picking out six key events from '07 and predicting what each means for the future.
Event: Martin Truex Jr. wins at Dover in June.
The Future: Dale Earnhardt Inc. will survive, despite the departure of Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Truex underachieved during his '06 rookie season. Of course, he's not the first Busch champion to struggle at the next level. His performance in '07 was strong, despite the ongoing soap opera surrounding his teammate and mentor, Dale Jr. Not only did he stomp the field at Dover by winning by more than seven seconds, he also qualified for the Chase for the Championship. His steady improvement has the DEI folks feeling good, while DEI's commitment to improving by acquiring the assets of Ginn Racing has Truex feeling good. Don't be surprised if Truex wins a Cup championship before Dale Jr.
Event: Kyle Busch and Hendrick Motorsports win the first race using the Car of Tomorrow.
The Future: Same as in the past, the team that spends the most money will usually win the most.
Despite NASCAR's desire to cut back on costs, dollars spent as a primary factor in winning is perhaps the biggest constant in the history of auto racing. The CoT was designed to cut costs, supposedly. Poor Roush Racing took NASCAR at its word and didn't test the CoT much. Hendrick spent oodles on testing the CoT, won the first five CoT races, and captured nine of 16 CoT races in '07. In case you missed it, the team's two best drivers -- Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon -- finished first and second in the points. How have teams reacted? By lining up extra investors, merging with other teams and asking sponsors for more money.
Event: After five races, Mark Martin leads the point standings.
The Future: Veteran drivers will get the opportunity to run part-time schedules for at least a few more seasons.
Mark Martin simply had more success on a limited basis than anybody in recent NASCAR history. He nearly won the Daytona 500, ending up just inches behind Kevin Harvick, and posted top-10 finishes in his first five races. But Mark Martin stayed true to his word, and ran a part-time schedule. Former Cup champions Bill Elliott and Terry Labonte had tried to run partial schedules in the past, but their competitiveness quickly dropped off. Not so with Mark Martin, who wound up 27th in the final standings despite sitting out 12 races. Veterans such as Elliott, Dale Jarrett and Sterling Marlin who want to drop back to a limited schedule should be sending Mark Martin notes of thanks.
Event: Michael Waltrip Racing is penalized for an illegal substance in an intake manifold at the Daytona 500.
The Future: Waltrip retires as a driver, gives up on being a team owner, and becomes one of the best broadcasters in the history of televised sports.
Waltrip has won the Daytona 500, but he's perhaps NASCAR's most overrated driver. His '07 season was perhaps the most embarrassing in NASCAR history. Counted on to be a Toyota stalwart, Waltrip qualified for just 14 races. Yet, it's not really his fault. He's simply got more personality than he has skills. His good looks, quick wits and dynamic personality keeps earning him rides and loyal sponsors. He's not a bad driver, just not a great one. It might take a season or two still, but Waltrip's future is as an analyst.
Event: Sam Hornish Jr. fails to qualify for Nextel Cup race in New Hampshire.
The Future: The open-wheelers might be invading, but they won't overrun the good old boys with stock-car backgrounds.
Sure, Juan Montoya had a decent '07 season. He was Rookie of the Year, won road course races on both the Busch and Nextel Cup circuits, and finished 20th in the points. On the other hand, Hornish failed to qualify in his first six attempts at a Cup race. Besides Hornish, other former Indy, Champ Car and Formula One drivers jumping to NASCAR include Dario Franchitti, Jacques Villenueve and Patrick Carpentier. Don't expect any of them to be nearly as successful as Montoya. Hornish will be the best of them, and he will struggle.
Event: After running in the first nine races of the '07 season, Dale Jarrett fails to qualify for the May race at Richmond. He is out of provisionals, so he misses the race.
The Future: Don't expect former champions to hang around to draw a paycheck. They won't race if they can't be competitive.
Jarrett struggled to qualify for the rest of the season. He never made more than three consecutive starts after he ran out of provisionals. Near the end of the season, he announced that he would race the first five points events of '08, then retire after the May All-Star race in Charlotte. Jarrett didn't have much fun in '07 and he's only racing at the beginning of next season out of loyalty to his team and sponsor. You can expect much of the same from champions like Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson when retirement is at hand. Sure, they will take care of their sponsor, but they won't race if their cars are consistently bad. One big reason is that they'll have enough money to retire.
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